A. 英国通胀为何“高烧不退”生活成本危机下民众“怒火”该如何平息
英国物价正在不断的上涨中,许多英国的民众由于负担不起高额的物价,上街游行并且罢工,要求政府降低物价,并且出台相关政策来保障基本民生,这也让政府感到非常的焦虑,因为通货膨胀的原因造成了当地物价非常高,虽然说当地的财政部门采取了许多方式来调节市场经济,但是通货膨胀的影响依然非常严重,特别是能源方面,在进入冬季之后,许多家庭由于要取暖,所以就要花费高额的取暖费用,这样的经济压力是普通民众无力承担。
B. 英国的财政赤字为什么高是什么原因造成的
1.受金融危机影响,全国经济不景气,导致失业率升高
2.社会福利太高,养老金和社会保障金太高
3.欧洲各国的财务赤字都很高,英国并不是最高的
4.经济的结构性弊端。受金融危机影响大
5.降低税收刺激消费,4使政府负担加大
C. 电费、燃气费飙升,数百万英国民众的生活难题该如何度过
英国能源危机愈发严重,因为受到欧盟与俄罗斯关系恶化的影响,虽然英国已经脱欧了,但并不妨碍俄罗斯的能源反制裁政策对其能源供应造成影响,普通群众的生活负担自然也是越来越大。
资本主义国家有它的优点,也有它的缺点,不要只看到外国的月亮是圆的,实际上你可能没有了解,外国普通群众生活到底是怎么样的,有些领域市场调节就可以,但有些领域就不行,比如说这个能源领域。能源正是紧缺的时候,民众正是收入水平下降,生活难以正常危机的时候,能源的价格又跟着上涨,那不是雪上加霜吗?但这个没什么好办法。
D. 英国的财政政策分条阐述
David Cameron and George Osborne are learning the wrong lesson from Gordon Brown’s time in office. Rather than demonstrating the power of their economic ideas with deeds at home, Britain’s prime minister and chancellor are now following Labour’s previous prime minister in preferring to lecture others abroad. The reaction at the World Economic Forum last week was unappreciative. 英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)和财政大臣乔治•奥斯本(George Osborne)正从戈登•布朗(Gordon Brown)主政时期汲取错误的教训。他们没有通过国内经济政策来证明自己的经济理念多么有威力,而是宁愿步前工党首相的后尘,在国外对其它国家高谈阔论。从最近世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)上的反应看,人们对此并不认可。
Instead of counterproctive posturing, ministers should recognise that the area in which Britain still leads the international debate is fiscal policy. Over the past four years, under both Mr Brown’s Labour government and Mr Cameron’s coalition government, the UK was early to understand the situation and rapid in its response. 他们不应该摆出这种毫无建设性的姿态,而是应该认识到,英国仍然能引领国际辩论的领域是财政政策。在过去四年里,在布朗领导的工党政府和卡梅伦领导的联合政府治下,英国较早理解了形势,并迅速作出反应。
The Labour government recognised the sudden stop in private sector spending in late 2008 and implemented a fast and temporary fiscal stimulus. By mid-2009 most of the rest of the advanced world had followed. Labour also saw the need for subsequent fiscal repair and started to tighten fiscal policy at the start of 2010, a shift subsequently deepened and defined fully by the new government later that year. 工党政府在2008年末发现,私营部门支出突然停止,于是迅速实施了临时财政刺激。到2009年年中,发达世界的多数其它国家都已经效仿英国。工党政府还认识到随后修复财政状况的必要性,于是在2010年初开始收紧财政政策,同年晚些时候,新的联合政府使这一转变得到深化和全面定义。
None of Britain’s fiscal tightening has been forced by market panic or credit downgrades. It is policymaking and delivery that generates genuine admiration around the world. 英国收紧财政政策的措施,都不是在市场恐慌或信用评级下调的威胁之下被迫实施的。正是这种政策制定和执行在世界各地得到由衷的钦佩。
For all the success so far in articulating how public deficits will decline, no one should doubt the scale of the task to come. The International Monetary Fund expects public sector borrowing still to be 7.8 per cent of national income in 2012: only the US and Japan are likely to borrow more. By the end of March, three-quarters of the tax increases planned will have been implemented, but only 6 per cent of current spending on public services will have taken place. Much can go wrong, so it is not surprising that many are angry with deficit rection. 尽管在如何降低公共赤字方面迄今的阐述颇为成功,但是谁都不应该怀疑未来的任务有多艰巨。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测,公共部门借债在2012年仍将占到国民收入的7.8%:只有美国和日本的公共部门借债可能更多。到今年3月底,计划实施的加税有四分之三将落实到位,但当前公共服务开支计划中已经到位的才只有6%。很多事可能会出问题,难怪许多人对削减赤字的做法感到愤怒。
Complaints are loudest at home. It is striking, however, that the most vocal arguments for fiscal loosening range from the mad to the bad. 国内的抱怨声音最为激烈。然而引人注目的是,最强烈支持放松财政政策的言论中,不是疯狂的,就是糟糕的。
The current leadership of the Labour party runs the most absurd arguments of all. Weaker economic forecasts, which have reced the expected path of deficit rection, stem from higher commodity prices, the confidence-sapping effects of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and last summer’s wrangles over the US debt ceiling. 现任工党领导层的言论是其中最荒唐的。降低了减赤预期走势的经济前景恶化,根源在于大宗商品价格上涨,以及欧元区主权债务危机和去年夏天美国债务上限的拉锯战所带来的削弱信心的效果。
To argue, as Labour does, that austerity measures have caused the economic disappointments is nonsense. It could be true only if Britain’s rise in value added tax had contributed to the Arab spring and the rise in the oil price, or if cuts in the budget of Bromley Council had some bearing on the solvency of Greece. The independent Institute for Fiscal Studies was kind on Wednesday when it described such arguments as “implausible”. 宣称紧缩措施引发了令人失望的经济形势(就像工党所主张的那样),纯属无稽之谈。这就好像在说英国提高增值税的做法引发了“阿拉伯之春”和油价上涨,或是伦敦布罗姆利区地方议会(Bromley Council)削减预算的做法影响了希腊的偿付能力。独立的财政研究所(Institute for Fiscal Studies)近日形容上述观点“难以置信”,这话真是太客气了。
Bad arguments for loosening austerity generally refer to the gilts market – where yields on 10-year UK government bonds stand close to record low levels at just above 2 per cent. These low yields show that the government deficit rection plans have credibility, and that current expectations of future growth and interest rates are low. What they do not show is that the government could go on a borrowing spree today without those yields reacting. The one thing we have learnt from financial markets over recent years is that only fools take market prices as a cast-iron indication of fundamental value. Market prices told us little about the true value of subprime mortgage debt or Greek sovereign debt until it was too late. 主张放松紧缩政策的糟糕观点,一般会提到英国国债市场——10年期英国国债的收益率略高于2%,接近历史最低水平。收益率徘徊于低位表明,政府的减赤计划具有可信度,它还表明,当前人们对未来经济增速和利率的预期都较低。但它未能反映出的一点是:如今政府可以继续大举借贷,而不致影响国债收益率。近年来我们从金融市场中学到了一点:只有傻子才会把市场价格当成基本价值的确切反映。市场价格未能告诉我们次级抵押债务或希腊主权债务的真实价值——直到一切已太晚。
When it comes to changing the planned path of deficit rection it is wise to be open to the need to change your mind. If there are circumstances in which fear again rises to post-Lehman levels, so only the government can be the borrower of last resort, it should be willing to act. The case for fiscal loosening also rises if evidence builds that monetary policy is completely impotent in driving demand. 就改变既定的减赤路线而言,对改变主意的必要性抱开放心态是明智的。如果恐慌情绪再次上升到雷曼兄弟(Lehman)倒闭后的水平,只有政府能够充当最后借款人的角色,那么政府应该愿意采取行动。假若有越来越多的迹象表明,货币政策已完全无法拉动需求,那么放松财政政策的理由也会趋于充足。
But Britain is still some way from suffering these conditions. It is in the middle of another nasty jolt in a slow and grinding recovery. The main disease was overconfidence about Britain’s economic strength before the crisis. Public austerity is the only long-term cure. 不过,如今的英国还不大可能出现这些情况。它正在缓慢而艰苦的复苏中经历着另一场令人不快的变化。最主要的问题在于,人们过于相信英国在危机面前的经济实力。公共紧缩是唯一的长期性对策。
The good news is that the latest burst of data on business activity has been positive – all the more reason for avoiding another temporary fiscal stimulus now. It should not be a tool for all seasons. 好消息是,最近出炉的有关企业活动的数据令人欣慰——这又多了一个避免在眼下实行另一轮暂时性财政刺激的理由。财政刺激是需要看“季节”的。